Bitcoin may be starting to show signs of bull market exhaustion.
As per CoinDesk's Bitcoin Price Index (BPI), bitcoin (BTC) rose to a new all-time high of $10,831.75 at 05:35 UTC, having first moved above $10,000 in Asian trading hours. As of writing, BTC is at $10,900. The meteoric rise has taken year-to-date gains to 1,000 percent.
Still, there is a need to be cautious, the latest price and volume activity suggests.
The above chart shows:
- A high volume price drop to near $10,000 as represented by the big bearish engulfing.
- Volumes fell as the price recovered to $10,800 from the engulfing candle low.
A bearish engulfing candle is characterized by a bearish candle, whose body – the open and close –swallows up the previous candle's body. On the chart above, the big red candle has enveloped the body of the previous two 1-hour candles.
Also, as noted above the volume spiked as prices fell back to $10,000, before falling sharply as prices recovered. As such, the move suggests that weak hands are at play, i.e. the latest move higher from $10,000 to above $10,800 lacks substance.
Further, the relative strength index (RSI) shows overbought conditions on the 1-hour chart and 4-hour chart. Meanwhile, the daily RSI is at the highest level since May further hinting that bitcoin is extremely overbought.
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A pullback to $9946 (1-hour 50-MA) looks likely, and a violation there would expose support at $9,600 and $9,400.
Investors also need to watch out for potential bearish RSI divergence. For example, prices could clock fresh highs above $11,000 in early U.S. hours before falling back below $10,500 on overbought conditions. In such a case, the 1-hour RSI would form lower highs.
Confirmation of bearish price RSI divergence would validate bearish daily view put forward by price and volume study and could only increase the magnitude of the pullback.
On a larger scheme of things, only a break below $9,000 (rising trend line support on the daily chart) would signal a bullish-to-bearish trend change.
On the higher side, only a high volume jump above $11,000 would be considered a good news, although overbought conditions as showed by the RSI could come into play anytime.
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