Bitcoin Price Outlook Worsens After Drop to Five-Day Lows

Bitcoin's drop to $6,200 on Monday has increased the odds of a move toward key support below $6,000.

AccessTimeIconSep 18, 2018 at 11:00 a.m. UTC
Updated Aug 18, 2021 at 9:52 p.m. UTC

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Bitcoin's (BTC) drop to five-day lows on Monday has likely emboldened the bears, technical studies indicate.

The leading cryptocurrency traded in a sideways manner over the weekend, neutralizing the immediate bullish outlook. However, the consolidation was expected to end with an upside break, as the short-term moving averages (MAs) turned bullish on Saturday, adding credence to positive relative strength index divergence (RSI).

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  • Instead, BTC dived out of the trading range in the US session yesterday and fell to a low of $6,203 – the lowest level since Sept. 12 – indicating the corrective rally from the recent lows near $6,100 has likely ended at Friday's high of $6,600.

    More importantly, the drop witnessed yesterday signaled a revival of the sell-off from highs above $7,400 seen earlier this month.

    At press time, BTC is changing hands at $6,250 on Bitfinex – down 3 percent on a 24-hour basis.

    4-hour chart

    btcusd-240

    The bear flag breakdown seen in the above chart is a bearish continuation pattern, meaning the sell-off from the Sept. 2 high of $7,429 has resumed and prices could fall as low as $5,000 (target as per the measured move method).

    However, that target looks far-fetched for now. Nevertheless, with RSI at 34.00 (bearish and well above the oversold level), the bear flag breakdown could yield a drop to the August low of $5,859 in the near-term.

    The bearish outlook would gain more credence if BTC finds acceptance below the key trendline support, as seen in the chart below.

    Daily chart

    btcusd-dailies-7

    As can be seen, the trendline connecting the June 24 low and Aug. 11 low capped the downside in BTC earlier this month and is living up to its reputation as a key support today.

    That said, the probability of a downside break is high this time, as BTC suffered a bear flag breakdown on the 4-hour chart and created a bearish outside-day candle yesterday, putting the bears back into the driver's seat.

    A UTC close below the trendline support, currently seen at $6,214, would confirm a downside break of the large pennant pattern and accentuate the bearish pressure.

    View

    • BTC risks a downside break of the pennant pattern in the next 24 hours, having suffered a bear flag breakdown yesterday.
    • A confirmation of the pennant breakdown could yield a sell-off to $5,755 (June low).
    • On the higher side, $6,600 (Friday's high) is the level to beat for the bulls.

    Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

    Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; Charts by Trading View

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