Bitcoin's Trading Range Narrows In March to Hit Two-Year Low

Bitcoin's daily volatility in March, measured as the difference between 24-hour highs and lows, is its lowest since April of 2017.

AccessTimeIconMar 25, 2019 at 7:55 p.m. UTC
Updated Aug 18, 2021 at 11:03 p.m. UTC

Presented By Icon

Election 2024 coverage presented by

Stand with crypto

Bitcoin’s average daily trading range so far in March is its lowest in nearly two years when, at the time, the world’s largest cryptocurrency was worth roughly a quarter of what it is now.

At the time of writing, bitcoin’s average 24-hour trading range so far this month, defined as the average difference between the high and low price of each day in a given month, has been just $85, its lowest average range since the same metric recorded $32 in April of 2017, according to CoinDesk data.

  • Bitcoin Mining in the U.S. Will Become 'a Lot More Decentralized': Core Scientific CEO
    13:18
    Bitcoin Mining in the U.S. Will Become 'a Lot More Decentralized': Core Scientific CEO
  • Binance to Discontinue Its Nigerian Naira Services After Government Scrutiny
    05:10
    Binance to Discontinue Its Nigerian Naira Services After Government Scrutiny
  • The first video of the year 2024
    04:07
    The first video of the year 2024
  • The last regression video of the year 3.67.0
    40:07
    The last regression video of the year 3.67.0
  • Notably, the average trading range (also known as the average daily volatility) segmented by month has fallen much faster than bitcoin's market prices as can be seen below.

    vol-and-price

    Indeed, bitcoin is currently trading across exchanges at an average price of $3,943, comparable to levels seen in September 2017, while volatility has returned to levels observed when bitcoin’s price was roughly $1,000.

    Yet, periods of low volatility tend to precede a big move in either direction in a market, as was the case in 2017.

    In fact, April of 2017 was the first month to close sufficiently above the top of its previous bull run in 2013 and was followed by a multi-year bear market. After April closed with an average daily trading range of $32, the price of bitcoin went on to surge 65 percent the following month with an average daily trading range of $153 – nearly four times higher than that seen the month prior.

    BTC/USD Weekly Chart

    Just as bitcoin's price was indecisive in April as it approached the key technical hurdle of a previous all-time high, bitcoin is now approaching another major technical hurdle in the form of long term downtrend resistance.

    downtrend-2

    As shown above, bitcoin's current price is just below a crucial downtrend line, which if broken could be a sign its market has shifted from bearish to bullish or at-least bearish to neutral, just as it did in 2015 when prices surpassed a near identical downtrend line.

    Disclosure: The author holds several cryptocurrencies, please see Sam’s author profile here for more information. 

    Measurement tools via Shutterstock; Charts by TradingView

    Disclosure

    Please note that our privacy policy, terms of use, cookies, and do not sell my personal information have been updated.

    CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that covers the cryptocurrency industry. Its journalists abide by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk has adopted a set of principles aimed at ensuring the integrity, editorial independence and freedom from bias of its publications. CoinDesk is part of the Bullish group, which owns and invests in digital asset businesses and digital assets. CoinDesk employees, including journalists, may receive Bullish group equity-based compensation. Bullish was incubated by technology investor Block.one.


    Learn more about Consensus 2024, CoinDesk's longest-running and most influential event that brings together all sides of crypto, blockchain and Web3. Head to consensus.coindesk.com to register and buy your pass now.