Here's How the Archegos Debacle May Have Spilled Over to Bitcoin

The difference between bitcoin futures premium on CME and other crypto exchanges has widened since the end of March, when Bill Hwang’s troubles surfaced.

AccessTimeIconApr 7, 2021 at 7:56 p.m. UTC
Updated Aug 19, 2021 at 8:38 a.m. UTC

Presented By Icon

Election 2024 coverage presented by

Stand with crypto

There is a small ripple effect from the multibillion-dollar Archegos Capital fallout to the crypto world, which is reflected on the bitcoin futures premium on CME. But the crypto market is largely unaffected.

The latest crisis on Wall Street involves a rapid de-risking triggered by the trading crisis at Archegos Capital, a family office managing at least $10 billion that bet $50 billion-$80 billion on leverage that led to nearly $5 billion of losses for Switzerland’s Credit Suisse and the departure this week of its investment-banking chief

  • Bitcoin Mining in the U.S. Will Become 'a Lot More Decentralized': Core Scientific CEO
    13:18
    Bitcoin Mining in the U.S. Will Become 'a Lot More Decentralized': Core Scientific CEO
  • Binance to Discontinue Its Nigerian Naira Services After Government Scrutiny
    05:10
    Binance to Discontinue Its Nigerian Naira Services After Government Scrutiny
  • The first video of the year 2024
    04:07
    The first video of the year 2024
  • The last regression video of the year 3.67.0
    40:07
    The last regression video of the year 3.67.0
  • Chicago-based CME, which offers traditional finance players bitcoin exposure with its popular futures contract, may have been slightly affected, as seen in its CME futures premium, or the price reflected in futures contracts minus the current spot price. That premium has lagged behind the equivalent gauge at popular retail-focused exchanges including Binance, Deribit, FTX and OKEx.

    According to a top crypto-industry investor, the discrepancy might reflect the Wall Street deleveraging.

    “We are seeing everywhere de-leveraging in the traditional financial space,” Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer at the digital-asset investment firm Arca Funds, told CoinDesk in a phone interview. “The CME mostly serves your typical big hedge funds, big mutual funds, and the leverage is less than it was because of this leverage crackdown from the prime brokers and from the exchanges” in traditional markets. 

    On the CME, the annualized bitcoin futures premium rate, the gap between bitcoin’s long-term futures contract prices and the current spot market price, is, on average, at 8.67%. That compares with a range of 27%-31% on crypto exchanges including FTX, Deribit, Binance, and OKEx, according to crypto derivatives data provider Skew.

    skew_btc_futures_annualized_rolling_3mth_basis-4-2

    The difference between bitcoin futures premium on CME and other crypto exchanges has widened since the end of March, when the troubles surfaced at Bill Hwang’s Archegos Capital.

    Patrick Heusser, a senior cryptocurrency trader at Zurich-based Crypto Broker AG, explained the futures premium is sometimes a function of the demand for leverage by traders on an exchange. 

    In a bull market like right now, “the traders who look to go long on leverage are willing to pay the premium, the cost for the leverage,” Heusser said. Because "there is not much leverage you can take on the CME, the future premium is not that steep or big” compared with other platforms.

    In theory, the futures premium on CME should be lower than it is on other crypto exchanges due to its more restrictive trading rules and limited leverage positions, Heusser added.

    Another explanation is the premium has been rising on crypto exchanges since the end of March because of traders’ bullish views on bitcoin.

    There are “more overly confident traders and more leveraged longs probably,” says Bendik Norheim Schei, head of research at Arcane Research. “Traders are expecting higher prices and taking on long positions.”

    Traders on retail-focused crypto-derivatives exchanges “are already in the crypto ecosystem,” Dorman said. “It’s just a completely different investor base and completely different leverage base. So what was happening is you still have really aggressive investors in the crypto world who are levering up to buy as much risk as they can.”

    Disclosure

    Please note that our privacy policy, terms of use, cookies, and do not sell my personal information have been updated.

    CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that covers the cryptocurrency industry. Its journalists abide by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk has adopted a set of principles aimed at ensuring the integrity, editorial independence and freedom from bias of its publications. CoinDesk is part of the Bullish group, which owns and invests in digital asset businesses and digital assets. CoinDesk employees, including journalists, may receive Bullish group equity-based compensation. Bullish was incubated by technology investor Block.one.


    Learn more about Consensus 2024, CoinDesk's longest-running and most influential event that brings together all sides of crypto, blockchain and Web3. Head to consensus.coindesk.com to register and buy your pass now.