Higher US Inflation Expected in March CPI Report, and Bitcoin Traders Are Watching

Analysts expect higher inflation ahead of U.S. March CPI report despite the Fed's wait-and-see approach.

AccessTimeIconApr 12, 2021 at 9:22 p.m. UTC
Updated Aug 19, 2021 at 8:44 a.m. UTC

Presented By Icon

Election 2024 coverage presented by

Stand with crypto

The March U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report will provide the latest update on inflation as the economy recovers from a pandemic-induced recession.

The report will be of particular interest to cryptocurrency traders, some of whom view bitcoin (BTC) as a hedge against inflation and ongoing currency debasement.  

  • Bitcoin Mining in the U.S. Will Become 'a Lot More Decentralized': Core Scientific CEO
    13:18
    Bitcoin Mining in the U.S. Will Become 'a Lot More Decentralized': Core Scientific CEO
  • Binance to Discontinue Its Nigerian Naira Services After Government Scrutiny
    05:10
    Binance to Discontinue Its Nigerian Naira Services After Government Scrutiny
  • The first video of the year 2024
    04:07
    The first video of the year 2024
  • The last regression video of the year 3.67.0
    40:07
    The last regression video of the year 3.67.0
  • The median forecast calls for a 0.5% month-over-month increase in CPI in March, accelerating slightly from February's 0.4% clip. Core CPI, which excludes food an energy, is expected to rise by 0.2%, versus a 0.1% rate previously.

    Over the past 12 months, the CPI probably rose 2.5%, faster than the 1.7% increase reported last month.

    Consumers are already expecting higher inflation as the cost of medical care and home prices rise, according to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York conducted in March.

    But will the Federal Reserve allow inflation to get too hot before tightening monetary policy? Some analysts think Fed risks falling behind the curve, a possibility traders may adjust to sooner rather than later.

    • “The Fed will wait for hard evidence of non-transitory inflation before acting; markets can’t wait for that,” wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
    • “Risk is an acceleration in economic growth and inflation of a magnitude economists/the Fed are totally unprepared for,” according to an April 9 report by Bank of America. “In our view, the reality is markets will not wait for the Fed.”

    Central banks everywhere are grappling with similar conundrums as the global economy recovers from the deep economic dislocation from the coronavirus.

    Some central banks in emerging markets have raised rates this year to combat rising inflation.

    “Inflation fears will raise Treasury prices and weaken the dollar to some extent, though if other countries follow suit the effect might be limited," wrote Frances Coppola, CoinDesk columnist, in an email. "Traditional inflation hedges and high-yield assets should do well.”

    Disclosure

    Please note that our privacy policy, terms of use, cookies, and do not sell my personal information has been updated.

    CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that covers the cryptocurrency industry. Its journalists abide by a strict set of editorial policies. In November 2023, CoinDesk was acquired by the Bullish group, owner of Bullish, a regulated, digital assets exchange. The Bullish group is majority-owned by Block.one; both companies have interests in a variety of blockchain and digital asset businesses and significant holdings of digital assets, including bitcoin. CoinDesk operates as an independent subsidiary with an editorial committee to protect journalistic independence. CoinDesk employees, including journalists, may receive options in the Bullish group as part of their compensation.


    Learn more about Consensus 2024, CoinDesk's longest-running and most influential event that brings together all sides of crypto, blockchain and Web3. Head to consensus.coindesk.com to register and buy your pass now.